Uncertainty Is The Only Truth

Good afternoon traders.
Friday felt busy.

Quadruple witching always does that.
Biggest volume day of the quarter.

I spent most of the session just watching flow.
Options expiry plus index rebalancing made everything noisy.
But inside the mess, there were clear stories.

Here’s how I saw it.

[This is not financial advice, only for educational purposes, you are responsible for your own portfolio]

Tech led again.
The QQQ closed up almost 0.7%.
RSI pushed above 70.
Yep, stretched.

Small caps lagged.
IWM and micro-caps sat out the rally.
They gave back part of the week’s gains.

Bitcoin drifted.
Most major coins stayed locked in a range.
Miners actually looked stronger than the tokens.
MSTR, COIN, even a few power-heavy rigs caught bids.

That flip between coins and miners keeps happening.
Energy prices matter for them now.
Crazy how fast narratives change.

Gold had another sharp pop.
The miners were insane.
GDX ran over 5% today.
Silver names added 3–4%.

It’s been the same story all year.
Miners keep leading the metal.
No one talks about them much, but they’ve doubled since January.

Shutdown drama may keep them bid.
Any hint of stress sends money their way.

A lot of posts hyped IWM’s highs this week.
But small caps need a spark to keep running.
They react to data.
They react to Fed days.

If bonds break higher, IWM can stretch.
If Treasuries stay stuck, IWM chops.

TLT is still basing.
Nice little lifts, then fade.
Price sits inside its yearly value.
No clear signal until we clear the 200-day.

Sometimes bases take forever to resolve.
You wait, you watch.
You don’t guess.

September keeps playing like August.
Down first, then up fast.
But we’re in the weakest month of the year.

The Q’s sit at RSI 74.
Charts look fine.
Seasonals don’t.

October 3rd SPY put spread, 655/650.
Cost a buck.

If we slide, payout’s good.
If not, small loss, who cares.

That’s the game: cover risk, keep trading.

Let’s give miners more love.
Franco-Nevada ripped 5.6%.
Perfect example of quiet strength.

Now uranium.
Whole group went vertical.
URNM ETF added 17% this week.
A few singles like LEU or UEC were rockets.

OLO climbed 28%.
Wild.
When governments hint at policy, these sectors sprint.

There’s a “quantum” ETF out there.
It’s not pure.
Weights are weird.

RGTI and IONQ barely show up.
Intel has a bigger slice than true plays.

Sometimes it’s smarter to build your own basket.
Take the leaders: RGTI, IONQ, QBTS, QUBT.
Add IBM for stability.
Google too, if you want mega-cap exposure.

All four had crazy weeks.
Even IBM snuck higher while nobody watched.

Options flow hit QUBT today.
Momentum spreads quick in this corner.

Late today, Oracle news dropped.
They might score a $20B deal with Microsoft.
Looks like AWS is losing share.

Oracle grabbed gains last quarter too.
The stock settled after earnings.
Now buyers show up again.

That five-day MA is catching price nicely.
Patience here could pay.

By the close, my watchlist stayed strong.
GEV set up clean near its 50-day.
Quiet names often give the best surprises.

Over the weekend I’ll trim the list.
Add fresh charts.
Seasonality matters, but price rules.

Also tiny position in a $15 stock.
It mixes uranium and quantum themes.
Speculative, yes.
But fun risk sometimes teaches more than safe plays.

Markets still reward people who stay alert.
Social feeds love the same tickers.
But edges hide in corners: miners, off-beat ETFs, quiet tech.

Hedging keeps nerves calm.
Chasing headlines rarely does.

Look at how gold miners led.
Look how uranium names spiked after policy talk.
Look how small caps stalled while Treasuries waited.

Patterns repeat if you slow down and watch.

Trade smart.
Enjoy the weekend.
See you Monday.